226. Rays of Hope, Paths Forward

VC Minute
There are rays of hope for the market, but the most important thing is to stay focused on what you can control.

VC Minute – quick advice to help startup founders fundraise better

Click below to listen. 3m 20s duration.

Subscribe to your podcast platform of choice.

Listen on Apple Podcasts
Listen on Spotify
Listen on Google Podcasts
Listen on Amazon Music
Listen on Pocket Casts
Listen on Stitcher

It’s not all bad news. There are some rays of hope breaking through. Carta recently published its Q1 data, and the Series D valuations—that’s D as in “Dang, they’ve raised a lot of money”—the valuations have bounced off of a low and are starting to rise again.

NASDAQ recently launched the IPO Pulse Index, designed to show the trend in IPOs before the actual IPO data changes. It’s a forecast of potential IPOs. Their forecast is rising and rising steeply. And in fact, in Q1, we saw more and bigger IPOs than in recent quarters. Nasdaq expects that the IPO upswing will continue into the second half of 2024.

I was chatting with Peter Walker earlier today, Head of Insights at Carta, and he’s going to join us on Wednesday, May 2nd, for our Seed Crust presentation. He brought up the great point of how hard it is to break out of anomalous thinking when you’ve just come out of an anomaly. We were comparing the data from 2021 for Seed and Pre-Seed deal values and just how absolutely out of control it went. You have to remember that all of 2021 and most of 2022 was an anomaly. It’s easy to forget what the market was like in 2018, 2019, or 2020. Or maybe you weren’t a founder during those times.

The average quarterly deal value across all Pre-Seed and Seed, according to PitchBook, from 2018 to 2020, was 2.2 billion. The five quarters from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024, was 3.6 billion. That’s a great increase. Except when you look at 2021 and 2022, and those eight quarters, the average was 5.4 billion. We all need a reset of expectations. We are not going back to 2021. You have to move forward with what’s in front of you.

When you’re circling around beneath the seed crust, it can really feel like things are out of control. You need to separate the things that you can control from the things you cannot control. What you can control is inside your company. What you cannot control is the market. The point of all my banging and screaming about the market is to bring you up to speed so that you know what’s happening out there, so that you can really, truly focus on what you can control.

Be sure to go to stvc.us/seedcrust to sign up for the full report presentation next week. Before we wrap up, let’s delve into what sets AVL Growth Partners apart. AVL’s team brings significant years of finance and accounting expertise. They ensure your path to success is crystal clear. AVL starts with a comprehensive business evaluation, uncovering opportunities and mapping actions to both your short- and long-term goals. Their evaluations are crafted from over a decade of experience pivoting companies from growth to scale. If you want to take your company to the next level and need the experience required to make it happen, visit avlgrowth.com right now. Time is our most precious asset. Thank you for spending some of it with us this week.

About AVL Growth Partners
AVL Growth Partners, founded in 2009, is the leading fractional Finance and Accounting firm supporting organizations in pivoting from growth to scale. AVL brings an experienced team of CFOs, Controllers, and Accountants to your organization, delivering transparent, strategic actions for short and long-term success. Transform your financial approach affordably with AVL, supporting companies coast to coast – get to know AVL Growth Partners at avlgrowth.com. (Sponsored)

Visit the VC Minute homepage for more episodes and more ways to subscribe.

Picture of VCMinute

About Us

We are in the business of helping young companies grow through seed investment and access to our network of leaders and industry experts.  People first. 

Recent Posts

Sign up for our Newsletter